Dynasties in a Democracy - a view of Andhra Pradesh

The advantage of the middle class and/or the so called thinking citizens (paraded usually as intellectuals) is that of armchair discourses on politics and the state of the State where they live in. I am no exception - without actively participating either in the democratic process in any way, I am of course free to air my opinions on the trends of politics in the country with the air of an analyst (dare not call myself a psephologist!) or through the looking glass of management in general and marketing in particular. It is not even as if I have been a follower of politics - many a time I have shunned away form the very discussions on them, like many of my urban genre of pseudo intellectuals. However, over the years, a certain allure kept me glued to the fringe of this circus, with as much vicarious pleasure as the spectators in the Colosseum. The explosion of media in volume and variety also added to this allure. It is with this explanatory (not apologetic) para that I am proceeding to look at the Chief Ministers of Andhra Pradesh over the years.

Andhra Pradesh took birth on November 1, 1956, but the Chief Ministers existed from 1950. The first 2 were Chief Ministers of the Hyderabad State after its annexation by Sardar Patel into the Indian dominion, and then there were 2 more for Andhra as a Region under the erstwhile Madras State. So when Neelam Sanjeeva Reddy became the Chief Minister in the newly linguistically formed Andhra Pradesh State (thanks to the one man army of Potti Sreeramulu who had to die to make Nehru budge from his stand), he is technically considered as the first Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh. From 1956, AP has had 14 Chief Ministers in 19 tenures till August 2009. Only 5 of the 19 CMs completed the full term and more in office - Kasu Brahmananda Reddy, Jalagam Vengala Rao(only one full term), N T Rama Rao, Chandra Babu Naidu and Y S Rajasekhara Reddy. Apart from these, despite short tenures, some have become CMs twice, such as Neelam Sanjeeva Reddy, Kotla VijayaBhaskara Reddy and Marri Chenna Reddy. Congress has been in power for 37 years and Telugu Desam Party for 16 years. The longest serving CM is Chandra Babu Naidu, which record would have been upset had Y S Rajasekhara Reddy not died on September 2.

So the head that wears the crown of AP has never rested easy and is indeed very fickle. Dissent within has been more the cause of downfall of Congress CMs than an opposition attack. Interestingly, the Telangana issue has always been simmering and is an important election issue, even for bringing down the ruling party. Even more interestingly, the regional background of CMs has been 6 from the Rayalseema, 4 from the Circars (Krishna & Guntur of the Andhra region), 4 from Telengana. 7 are Reddys, 4 Kammas, and 1 each of Brahmin, Kapu and Scheduled Caste. The shortest tenure is 31 days - that of Nadendla Bhaskar Rao. The ousters or election routs of most of the CMs has been dramatic and on issues blown out of proportion. AP emotions are easy to ignite -they flare up as easily as they suddenly die down and this is an important factor in AP politics. You never can actually map trends as you never know which issue will catch public interest when. Fortunately, after several instances of instigation of mindless violence, now there is some restraint or localization of violence. Therefore, in politics today, a shrewd leader has to manage his mass base by the right balance of provocation and disguised retreat, before it becomes a cause of violence.

Another phenomenon that politicians in AP had to deal with is the totally changed nature of campaigning and getting votes. It was a standing joke in elections in India in yesteryears that a person from the field reported to his boss and candidate of the constituency at 10.30 am on the election day that they had lost the election! The puzzled candidate asked him how this was possible when the voting had just started. His man in the field reported that since he and his gang got up late, the opposite party candidate had a head start and his people captured more booths than they could and that is how the result is going to be unfavourable! Jokes apart, the nature of voting has changed, with improved technology and more awareness amongst masses and the political aspirants really had to endear themselves to the voters in more creative ways.

The use of mass media and professionals in marketing by the leading national parties at the national level saw a sea change in the 1977 elections and fired the imagination of the masses towards voting for change. The very focused and well managed campaign of a completely new party led by N T Rama Rao, who ushered in change in regional level politics with local issues, complete with a USP of regional pride, colour code, taglines, territory coverage and literally projecting all new candidates and sweeping them to power shook the foundations of the largely complacent national parties, a la the earlier Ambassador and Fiat story, when new generation vehicles hit the market. The dissidence in AP Congress still continued, despite them licking their wounds.

The coming of Rama Rao signalled many changes in AP. The decades old monopoly of Congress was shattered. It also decided the fate of two people in AP politics, who were till then comrades in arms. In cricket, it is said that Sachin Tendulkar and Vinod Kambli were great friends and started out on the journey together. In Kambli's words, the destinies changed as Sachin took the escalator, while Kambli took the stairs. In AP politics, it was Kambli (Chandra Babu Naidu) who took the escalator provided by his father in law N T Rama Rao, while his comrade in arms and much earlier player Rajasekhar Reddy having to take the stairs.

Babu went on to ride on the crest of his father in law's popularity and quick learner that he was, he very rapidly understood what sells and soon got Rama Rao out of the way. It was also the start of populism as Rama Rao promised the masses Rs 2 a kilo rice scheme and this did make dents into the state finances. Babu now tasted the success of seeking World Bank loans, after a brilliant positioning of AP as a tech savvy and happening state. Infrastructure investments brought in the next high and AP rose in the nation's esteem as a dynamic state and Babu as a person who could swing national level politics as well. Till then, the Delhi Durbar did not much bother about anyone in the South, barring Tamil Nadu.

However, his opponents quickly pointed out that all of Babu's development was aimed at the urban class and that the rural masses were left high and dry. In the run up to the elections, Babu even went for drastic reforms in the power sector and in the state Public enterprises, making everyone confident that he would loose the 1999 elections. Congress went overboard by announcing free power knowing very well that power charges have been steeply increased in Babu's regime under the reform process. There were also premature celebrations. However, stunning everyone, Babu won. How did he do it? By concentrating on key segments, ie, women self help groups, small vegetable growers and assured power supply for farmers and many more such things, focussing on segment specific benefits.

Coming back for a second time, Babu became the CM to be in seat for the longest term. However, arrogance leads to complacency and this was his downfall. He went hammer and tongs against everyone and to keep down a second line formation, created several balancing forces at each level that would keep each of them engaged. Before the 2004 elections, he went overboard by announcing too many freebies, seeking popularity and projecting himself rather than his vision. In the menawhile, YS Rajasekhar Reddy, developed a master plan for the return to power by the Congress, crafted and executed single handedly. Steering clear of dissidence, he went on foot in the hot summer, to the constituents of all areas and regions, to the farthest of the villages and addressed local issues, contrasting and countering in a direct and rustic way, the hi tech campaign of Babu, who had now little understanding of the different segments of the populace. Rajasekhar Reddy won, but not even he could have imagined the total rout of the TDP at the hustings. It could be attributed to the entire government machinery that mans the elections, who were fed up of Babu's draconian performance regimen and transfers in the election year. The swing was just 5 lakh votes, but it left a Tsunami in its wake. Congressmen were surprised at this victory, but YSR knew that he would win as he had guaged the mood of the public more than anyone did.

Congressmen were back to their old games of dissidence, however, YSR had clear focus on two major goals - one to rule the party with full control and use Delhi to quell dissidence and the second to turn the tide permanently in Congress' favour. Fortunately for him, Sonia was more than keen to support him (unlike all previous High Commands who played havoc with all Congress CMs), maybe because of the understanding that divide and rule politics in Congress have come to an end and it is necessary to depend on state governments, rather than lord over them, or because YSR was a Christian, or because she was promised a hefty return, all which may be wrong and all of which may be true.

Among the key programmes YSR went about doing are adopting all of the previous government's welfare and business projects under the name of Rajiv or Indira Gandhi, quelling dissidence ruthlessly with an iron hand by showing guts in not cowering to the age old tactics of pulling the rug from under his feet, constant dialogue with Sonia (and reportedly cash flow), investing heavily in all projects promised during elections, incurring heavy debts along the way, making huge deals for infrastructure and industry and spreading his domain over everyone with this power. Babu, in the meantime had been floundering both in terms of loss of grip on constituents and on his party and flailing wildly at anything and everything, but lacking focus.

So, when the 2009 elections came round, YSR was ready with all his schemes for the poor, particularly the Health initiative and the pension scheme, while Babu wasted precious time trying to sort out inter party and intra party dissidence and rebellion. YSR was helped by the emergence of two more parties (one of which is rumoured to have been egged on by him), but his message to the masses was loud and clear in terms of benefits. Notwithstanding this, it is also rumoured that money just flew in order to keep the stock in hold against the populist schemes being enumerated by all parties for luring the voters. In the end, YSR had the last laugh. He had learnt his lessons well and played his cards exceedingly shrewdly and he crafted the win by annihilating all dissidents in his party and making sure that candidates won only with his blessings and support and rooted out the congenital problem of dissidence in the Congress Party leading to a downfall of the government.

He was firmly in the saddle, but was also conscious that he had to continue to retain the support of the voters in the face of rising bureaucratic and political corruption, that would come home to roost in his term and would also point out an ugly finger at the huge debt that the state has incurred. He had to make the populist schemes work. Unfortunately for him and for the state, he died before ensuring some modicum of success - probably because corruption actually caught up with him? There are serious questions on the quality of craft and spare parts and official laxity in duties that may have led to the crash that killed him.

It is unfortunate for the state- it will see the rise of dissidence again and without a person of stature, it would be well nigh impossible to control the burden of the runaway debt, which his son, now being touted as successor and signalling the advent of dynastic rule even in the state politics, would find difficult to handle. It is not a legacy that YSR would have liked to pass on to his son. It would also be an unfitting tribute to a man who worked hard at an impressive image makeover from that of a powerful mafia don to a charismatic messiah of the people and a national hero. In the TDP also, family politics and dynastic tendencies are very evident, PRP is born in family politics and the future of AP has moved away from democracy in whatever form it was, to dynastic mockery of democratic institutions. Till date, dynastic succession was only at Delhi and in some states like Orissa, now the malaise is spreading like cancer. God save our country!